Perceived local and household impacts influence climate policy support

Public support for climate change mitigation in the Nordic Region is shaped by how people perceive the effects of climate policies on their household and the community where they live. In-depth analysis of Nordic survey data reveal that when people believe climate policies negatively affect their household finances or local job markets (now or in the future), they are less likely to support those policies. These perceptions also influence how fair people think policies are. In other words, people’s sense of fairness is shaped by their lived or anticipated experiences. Climate policy support therefore depends not only on policy goals, but also on how people expect to be affected.

While climate policies may raise concerns about impacts at the household and community levels, Nordregio’s research shows that the overall impact of ambitious climate policies on household living costs tends to be modest. For example, modelling results indicate that transport policies aimed at increasing biofuel use and electrifying vehicle fleets would raise household expenditures by 1% or less over a decade, depending on the country and household type. This suggests that such policies are unlikely to cause widespread financial strain.

Quotes from stakeholders
Source: Quotes are taken from focus group discussions conducted by Nordregio in 2023.

Public support for climate change mitigation in the Nordic Region is shaped by how people perceive the effects of climate policies on their household and the community where they live. In-depth analysis of Nordic survey data reveal that when people believe climate policies negatively affect their household finances or local job markets (now or in the future), they are less likely to support those policies. These perceptions also influence how fair people think policies are. In other words, people’s sense of fairness is shaped by their lived or anticipated experiences. Climate policy support therefore depends not only on policy goals, but also on how people expect to be affected.

While climate policies may raise concerns about impacts at the household and community levels, Nordregio’s research shows that the overall impact of ambitious climate policies on household living costs tends to be modest. For example, modelling results indicate that transport policies aimed at increasing biofuel use and electrifying vehicle fleets would raise household expenditures by 1% or less over a decade, depending on the country and household type. This suggests that such policies are unlikely to cause widespread financial strain.

Quotes from stakeholders
Source: Quotes are taken from focus group discussions conducted by Nordregio in 2023.

Nonetheless, individual policies may place a greater burden on some households than others. Such impacts can be alleviated through targeted social policies, tax rebates, direct transfers and other mechanisms. Importantly, support measures should be carefully designed and focused on the most vulnerable groups. Evidence from the Nordic Region shows that broad, untargeted support can distort incentives for energy efficiency and green innovation, delay behavioural change and disproportionately benefit higher-income households.

To be effective and fair, support measures should be targeted to the groups that are most affected and vulnerable, such as low-income households. Support measures should also be transparent, with clear criteria and communication about who receives support and why. Finally, these measures should be temporary, designed to ease adjustment rather than establish new entitlements.

Target temporary and transparent support to vulnerable households to mitigate the social impacts of transition policies.

Calmfors, L. & Sánchez Gassen, N. (2024). Economic policy beyond the pandemic in the Nordic countries. Nordregio Report 2024: 12, Stockholm: Nordregio. DOI: http://doi.org/10.6027/R2024:121403-2503.

Dixon, P., Rimmer, M., Wittwer, G., Honkatukia, J., Tapia, C. & Sánchez Gassen, N. (2023). What impact do climate change policies have on Nordic economies, industries and households? Nordregio Report 2023:10, Stockholm: Nordregio. DOI: 10.6027/R2023:101403-2503.

Flam, H. & Sánchez Gassen, N. (2024). Regional economic effects of the green transition in the Nordic Region. Nordregio Report 2024:25, Stockholm: Nordregio. DOI: 10.6027/R2024:25.1403-2503.

Tapia, C., Lundgren, A. & Sánchez Gassen, N. (forthcoming). Scaling fairness: Balancing self-interest, community needs and societal justice for public acceptance of climate change mitigation policies in the Nordic Region.