Across the agri-food sector, labour demand is highly segmented and dynamic, encompassing various worker categories such as family farmers, managers and employees, seasonal and temporary workers (including migrant workers) and contractors. Today, food systems face the dual challenge of declining employment and labour shortages. Employment in food systems continues to follow a long-term downward trend, mirroring its declining share of GDP. The agricultural workforce is predicted to decline by 2% per year until 2030, with the most pronounced decline expected among low-skilled workers. At the same time, the proportion of seasonal and temporary workers in the agricultural workforce is expected to increase. Demand for workers with higher levels of entrepreneurial and management skills, digital skills and business and marketing experience is also expected to rise.
Several EU countries are experiencing labour shortages in agriculture, butchery, bakery and other occupations within the food systems sector. Labour shortages in the EU agricultural sector vary considerably according to farm size and type of production, with larger farms often being more dependent on migrant workers. The increase in migrant labour is also associated with a rise in temporary and seasonal employment in the sector, which often entails less security for agricultural workers. Additionally, a smaller group of specialised professionals with unique skills may serve as the last remaining experts in certain trades (e.g. butchery), filling critical gaps in labour shortages for small-scale farms.
Job vacancies for the agri-food sector are illustrated in Figure 4. These refer to positions that are unfilled, actively advertised and have a scheduled starting date within a defined period (usually 30 days). The vacancy data are typically collected through employer surveys on the number of open and actively recruited positions. The job vacancy rate is calculated by dividing the number of vacancies by the total number of jobs (vacant + occupied). This metric helps assess labour market demand and potential skills mismatches.
Relatively linear trends in job vacancies in food systems in Sweden, Norway and Finland can be observed up to 2019. After that point, significantly greater fluctuations are observed, which may be related to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on food systems in 2020 and Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.