The results of the analysis indicate that several predictors are significantly associated with the propensity to vote for a populist party.
Green transition factors
Higher levels of green task jobs in a municipality do not seem to be significantly associated with the proportion of vote for a populist political option. Nonetheless, municipalities with high levels of GHG emissions per employee show a smaller percentage of votes for populist parties. Such a negative association between populist voting and GHG emissions is further corroborated by the presence of polluting EPRTR facilities within municipalities or nearby areas, which is also negatively and significantly associated with populist vote share.
These somewhat surprising patterns might be related to existing working conditions in communities with prevalence of traditional industrial activities. In the Nordic context, where renewable energy sources dominate the energy production landscape, the majority of industrial emissions originate from traditional industrial facilities. These facilities are predominantly found in industries such as cement production, steel manufacturing, and the chemical industry. Emissions in these sectors are often characterised as difficult-to-abate, meaning they are challenging to reduce or eliminate using current technologies and practices. This is due to the inherent nature of the production processes involved, which often rely on high-temperature processes, chemical reactions, and the use of fossil fuels as feedstocks or energy sources (Kumar et al. 2024).
Industries in these sectors are often major local employers, providing jobs not only in the production process but also in supporting services like maintenance, transportation, and administration (Ostermeyer 2023). They source goods and services from local suppliers, which can have a positive impact on the local economy, and generate significant tax revenue for local municipalities, supporting public services and infrastructure. The industries can have a multiplier effect on the local economy, as employees spend their wages locally, supporting other businesses and services (Moritz et al. 2017). Additionally, compared to other activities, the cement, steel, and chemical industries in the Nordic countries tend to offer higher wages, more comprehensive benefits packages, greater job security, and more opportunities for professional advancement (Marginson & Dølvik 2020).
Building on these considerations, we hypothesize that indirect factors may contribute to strengthening local communities and reducing perceptions of economic insecurity, which are often drivers of populist sentiment. This interpretation might explain why the presence of large industrial facilities in a municipality, often leading to greater GHG intensity of local employment, is often concurrent with a smaller percentage of votes for populist parties in those areas, as workers are more likely to feel invested in the existing economic and social order. By providing a sense of stability and security to local communities, traditional industries may indirectly reduce the appeal of populist movements, which can find momentum in feelings of economic anxiety and disillusionment with current development. Further research would be needed to delve deeper into these mechanisms and confirm whether the presence of large, traditional industries in the Nordic municipalities does in fact contribute to reduce the level of political discontent at the local level.