8. Summary and recommendations

During the last few years, concerns have been raised that political discontent can pose a challenge to Western democracies. Discontent may reflect declining trust in political leaders and democratic processes and may lead to increased societal polarization or political instability. As discussed in this project synthesis, discontent can stem from various factors, including economic insecurities, spatial inequalities, demographic shifts and social factors. Large socio-technical changes like the green transition may also play a role. Discontent can be directed towards different political actors, institutions at different levels of government, and individual policies. It can manifest in different forms, such as protests, political apathy or changing party support.

This complexity makes it challenging to identify the concrete drivers of discontent and formulate strategies of how to address them. We have analysed political discontent through the lens of electoral behaviour – turnout in national level elections and votes cast for populist parties. This approach has allowed us to examine the association between socio-economic characteristics and voting patterns at the municipal level across the Nordic Region.

Our analyses show that neither turnout nor the share of votes cast for populist parties have consistently increased across the Nordic countries in recent years. Exceptions include Sweden, where the Sweden Democrats have gained increasing support among voters over the past 15 years, as well as Greenland and Iceland, which have witnessed declines in voter turnout. Nonetheless, these national-level trends mask considerable diversity at local level. A comparison between rural, intermediate and urban municipalities showed that rural areas have significantly lower levels of voter turnout, while people living in intermediate areas are significantly more likely to vote for populist parties.

In this project synthesis, we have also summarized our research findings regarding the drivers of these spatial differences. Our analyses show that significant spatial inequalities exist in the Nordic Region, with urban municipalities generally benefitting from more favourable demographic, social and economic conditions. The results show that these inequalities matter for populist voting. For example, people who live in municipalities with a higher proportion of men compared to women, lower levels of education, higher levels of unemployment, and less favourable income developments are more likely to vote for populist parties. By contrast, the presence of a traditional, polluting industrial facility and higher levels of GHG emissions per employee are associated with lower support for populist parties. This has implications for the further advancement of the green transition, which we return to below.

These results have implications for policy makers seeking to address political discontent. The following recommendations are targeted towards national, regional and local policymakers in the Nordic Region. They focus on the underlying factors contributing to political discontent and suggest approaches to reduce spatial inequalities, enhance economic development, improve local quality of life and promote participation:

Discontent is higher in municipalities experiencing higher levels of unemployment and income stagnation. This underscores the importance of continuing to implement and finance regional and place-based development policies that enhance regional economic competitiveness and growth, and reduce territorial disparities, with a focus on stagnating and declining regions. Strengthening local networks between companies, research and innovation actors and the educational sector may also spur local and regional innovation and entrepreneurship.

Salonen, H. (2024): Roadmap for Nordic rural development, Stockholm: Nordregio. Available at: https://nordregio.org/publications/roadmap-for-nordic-rural-development/

Our research shows that political discontent, as expressed in voting for populist parties, is lower in municipalities with high levels of greenhouse gas emission per employee and/or a polluting facility than in municipalities without these characteristics. We have hypothesized that traditional heavy industries have often offered stable jobs with comparatively high wages and generous benefits to employees and have benefitted local economies by sourcing goods and services from local suppliers. This may have contributed to maintain high levels of stability and trust.

These results point to the importance of maintaining good working conditions during the green transition. Green investments and initiatives that lead to job creation should strive to offer similar rights and benefits as jobs in traditional industries. Temporary jobs with low pay and little benefit for local communities will not be sufficient to counteract discontent in vulnerable areas and might even increase it.

Consequently, new green jobs should offer good overall working conditions, such as employment security, opportunities for development, and decent pay. It is equally important that local communities benefit from green investments in the long run, through job opportunities for local residents and multiplier effects in local economies. Investing in re-skilling and up-skilling programmes is important to ensure that local workers and employees can update their competencies to qualify for new jobs.

Additional research, using both quantitative and qualitative approaches, are needed to delve deeper into the relationship between jobs, working conditions and discontent and to fully understand the patterns observed in our analyses.

Sánchez Gassen, N. et al. (2024): Nordic toolbox for a just green transition. Stockholm: Nordregio. Available at: http://doi.org/10.6027/R2024:21.1403-2503
See in particular the priority area on reskilling and upskilling.

Political discontent is higher in municipalities with a higher proportion of men relative to women. Skewed gender balances are often caused by the outmigration of young women to large urban centers that offer more varied education and employment opportunities. However, the profiles of the local labour markets also play a role. In many remote areas, economic activity centres around male-dominated sectors such as agriculture, forestry or mining, which offer better employment opportunities for men.

In a recent project, Nordic youth representatives suggested 40 action points to make rural regions more attractive for both men and women and to increase young people’s willingness to stay (Wøien Meijer et al. 2023). Their recommendations include investing in accessible and efficient transportation, affordable housing options, accessible education opportunities, remote work options, recreational facilities, public meeting spaces, health and welfare services and increasing opportunities for involvement. The overall goal of investments should be to create better quality of life and opportunities for all, thereby reducing outmigration and even attract new residents. Investing in local community development is hence seen as a win-win policy option that can contribute to reinforce local community resilience and reduce the degree of public discontent in those areas.

Wøien Meijer, M.et al. (2023): From fields to futures: 40 action points for rural revitalisation. Nordic Rural Youth Panel 2023. Nordregio Report 2023:13. Stockholm: Nordregio. Available at: https://nordregio.org/publications/from-fields-to-futures-40-action-points-for-rural-revitalisation/

An important component of creating and maintaining attractive communities is ensuring that public services are available to local populations. During interviews conducted in our project, local civil servants highlighted the importance of maintaining local services to ensure a high quality of life. They also stressed how the downscaling of healthcare, education, or public transport has increased place-based resentment among residents. In times of scarce financial resources, concentrating services in larger towns may be considered a fiscal necessity, but it implies risks of fuelling discontent. Declining service provision in local areas also challenges goals such as limiting outmigration and attracting newcomers.

In contrast, investing and maintaining local public health care services, education, social care and public administration in rural and remote areas can help to attract young families and women, as these sectors have female-dominated workforces. It is also important to strike the right balance between providing place-based public services and using digital technologies such as telemedicine, online education or digital public service portals.

Slätmo, E. et al. (2023): Service provision and access to services in Nordic rural areas. Nordregio report 2023:2, Stockholm: Nordregio. Available at: https://nordregio.org/publications/service-provision-and-access-to-services-in-nordic-rural-areas/

Bogason, A. & Slätmo, E. (2023): Essential Service Provision and Access to Services in Nordic Rural Areas. Nordregio policy brief 2023:1, Stockholm: Nordregio. Available at: https://nordregio.org/publications/essential-service-provision-and-access-to-services-in-nordic-rural-areas/

In interviews conducted for this project, civil servants stressed the importance of maintaining a close dialogue with their citizens. Openly communicating about local issues and developments, offering opportunities for citizen participation and genuinely listening to people’s concerns and ideas can help build trust and contribute to the development of better policies. This may be particularly relevant for projects and initiatives related to the green transition, master and physical planning, and infrastructure development. Importantly, the involvement of citizens should not be limited to the final stages of policy-making processes but should occur early on so that their input can still make a difference.

Salonen, H. (2024): Between hand-outs and stand-outs: Opportunities for policy support for just green transitions. Nordregio Policy Brief 2024:1. Stockholm: Nordregio. Available at: https://nordregio.org/publications/between-hand-outs-and-stand-outs-opportunities-for-policy-support-for-just-green-transitions/

Finally, local and regional authorities could examine whether obstacles hinder people from participating in elections. This may include accessibility issues or lack of knowledge on how to vote remotely. Information and voter awareness campaigns targeting young people, marginalized populations, and other groups with low turnout can encourage more people to exercise their right to vote. This can foster a more inclusive political environment and ensure that voting results are more representative.