DEMOGRAPHY

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS • POPULATION PROJECTIONS • DIVERSITY

Images: iSTOCK / ISTOCK / maskot, Imagebank.sweden.se

Demography is the most basic condition for regional development. Without residents, there can be no municipalities, no local institutions and no sustained economic activity. The size, spatial distribution and composition of the population shape the conditions under which development takes place across regions. In the Nordic context, where municipalities and regions have extensive responsibility for welfare services, the age structure is particularly important. The balance between children, working-age adults and older residents affects not only demand for public services, but also the tax base and labour supply that sustain them. Changes in population size and migration patterns influence municipal finances, planning capacity and the long-term viability of communities, making demographic trends a key driver of regional development.

ChapTER 2: Population change In the nordic region

Chapter 2 provides an overview of recent demographic developments in the Nordic Region, focusing on population size, population change, fertility and age structure. While the Nordic countries share structural similarities, demographic trends vary considerably across regions. Population growth continues at the Nordic level, but is concentrated in metropolitan areas and regional centres, whereas many rural and sparsely populated areas face stagnation or decline. Fertility has fallen to historically low levels, reducing natural population change and contributing to population ageing. Migration remains a key driver of population dynamics, particularly in urban regions.

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Chapter 3: The Nordic population in 2045: Larger, older and more urban

Chapter 3 examines projected demographic developments in the Nordic Region between 2025 and 2045, based on population projections published by the National Statistical Institutes (NSIs). The overall population is expected to grow from approximately 28 to 30 million, primarily driven by positive net migration, as natural population change is projected to be negative. Population ageing will continue in all Nordic countries, with substantial increases in the number of people aged 80 and over, while in several countries it is projected that younger age groups will stagnate or decline. Growth is expected to concentrate in inner urban, outer urban and peri-urban municipalities, whereas rural and sparsely populated areas are more likely to experience population decline.

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Chapter 4: Nordic population diversity by country of birth

Chapter 4 analyses population diversity in the Nordic countries between 1990 and 2024, using country of birth as the key indicator. The share of foreign-born residents has increased substantially across the Region, albeit with differences in timing and composition between countries. Intra-Nordic migration has declined in relative importance, while migration from the EU27 and regions outside Europe has become more prominent. At the municipal level, diversity remains uneven and is generally concentrated in metropolitan areas. However, some rural municipalities, particularly in Norway and Iceland, display relatively high levels of diversity. A Diversity Index is used to illustrate spatial patterns and changes in diversity over time.