The Nordic population in 2045: Larger, older and more urban
The Nordic population in 2045: Larger, older and more urban
Introduction
“Demography is destiny”. This remark, often attributed to the French philosopher Auguste Comte (1789–1857), underlines the profound influence of population trends on societal development. Comte argued that demographic development has an essential influence on a country’s social, economic and political future. Researchers have criticised this view as too deterministic – after all, a country’s future is not solely determined by its evolving population size or composition (Dorling & Gietel-Basten, 2018; Uhlenberg, 2013). Nonetheless, demographic patterns are widely recognised as a key factor that influences long-term societal trajectories (Harper, 2018). In this context, spatial differences also matter – urban and rural, central and remote areas often face different, albeit connected, population trends and challenges. Given that demography plays a significant, if territorially nuanced role, then what lies ahead for the Nordic Region?
This chapter provides an overview of projected demographic trends in the Nordic Region at national, regional and local levels, with a focus on the period 2025–2045. It is based on the most recent projections published by the National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) and affiliated institutions.
The second and third section describe key projected trends of population growth and ageing from a national perspective. The third and fourth sections compare expected population trends at regional and local levels. The chapter also outlines and discusses some of the assumptions behind the projections. The final section summarises the findings.
Several of the NSIs have published more than one projection scenario. In those cases, the median or main scenario was used for the maps, figures and analyses of this chapter.
The purpose of this chapter is to offer insights into the Nordic demographic outlook and enable meaningful comparisons between countries and between rural and urban areas. While demography may not be destiny, planning based on – and for – expected demographic trends is essential for seizing opportunities, addressing challenges and guiding policymaking.
Population change in the Nordic countries
According to the most recent population projections,
the population of the Nordic Region is expected to increase from 28 million to 30 million between 2025 and 2045 (Table 3.1). This increase will be driven by positive net migration, since natural population change during this period will be negative – in other words, it is expected that there will be more deaths than births in the Nordic Region as a whole.
The following national and subnational population projections were used for this chapter: Statistics Denmark (2025a), Statistics Faroe Islands (2022), Statistics Finland (2024a), Statistics Greenland (2025), Statistics Iceland (2025a), Icelandic Regional Development Institute (2023), Statistics Norway (2024a), Statistics Sweden (2025a), Statistics Åland (2025). Projection updates after 1 October 2025 could not be taken into account. Note that Statistics Faroe Islands has discontinued its population projections and will not publish new updates. Instead, the Governmental Bank of the Faroe Islands is currently in the process of developing a new projection.
Across the Nordic countries, both similarities and distinct patterns emerge. Almost all of the Nordic countries are projected to have larger populations in 2045 than in 2025. The increase is particularly pronounced in Iceland, where the population is projected to grow by 38% from around 389,400 to 537,700. This growth is driven by positive natural change and sustained net migration, which reflects similar developments over the past 20 years linked to labour demand in expanding sectors such as construction and tourism.
In the other Nordic countries, population growth is projected to be more modest, ranging from 3.1% in Åland to 8.6% in Norway. Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and Åland are all projected to experience positive net migration, contributing to population growth. Natural population change is expected to be positive in Norway and roughly balanced in Denmark, but negative in Finland, Sweden and Åland. In the latter three countries, negative natural population change is projected to be offset by positive net migration, resulting in continued population growth.
The exception to this general pattern is Greenland, where the population is projected to decrease from around 56,500 to 48,200 between 2025 and 2045. This decline is driven by outmigration, since natural population change is expected to remain positive.
Total population size (rounded) | Population change, 2025-2045 (in %) | ||||
2025 | 2045 | Total change | Natural change | Net migration | |
Nordic Region | 28,311,300 | 30,084,100 | 6.3% | -0.8% | 7.1% |
Denmark | 5,992,700 | 6,198,600 | 3.4% | -0.0% | 3.5% |
Finland | 5,605,300 | 6,042,200 | 7.8% | -6.6% | 14.3% |
Iceland | 389,400 | 537,700 | 38.1% | 10.6% | 27.0% |
Norway | 5,594,300 | 6,058,800 | 8.3% | 2.8% | 5.8% |
Sweden | 10,587,700 | 11,108,500 | 4.9% | -0.4% | 5.3% |
Faroe Islands | 54,500 | 58,300 | 5.7% | n.a. | n.a. |
Greenland | 56,500 | 48,200 | -14.7% | 2.6% | -17.5% |
Åland | 30,700 | 31,600 | 3.1% | -6.6% | 9.6% |
Table 3.1: Population size and projected change by component in the Nordic countries, 2025-2045. Source: Nordregio calculations based on population projection data from the National Statistical Institutes (NSIs). Natural change is defined as the difference between the number of births and deaths. Net migration is the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants. Natural change and net migration components do not always add up to the total population change (in %) due to rounding.n.a. = not available. |
Changing age composition in the Nordic countries
The population dynamics described above – births, deaths and migration – influence not only the size of the Nordic populations, but also their age structures. Figure 3.1 shows population pyramids for the Nordic Region and each Nordic country, comparing the age- and sex-structure in 2025 with projections for 2045. For the Nordic Region as a whole (Figure 3.1), most age groups under 35 are projected to be smaller in 2045 than in 2025, while most above 35 are expected to increase. This overall shift is also visible when comparing the relative size of broad age groups (Figure 3.1). Children, youth and young adults (0–19 and 20–39 years) made up 48% of the Nordic population in 2025; this share is expected to decline to 44% in 2045. The share of the 40–79 age group will remain relatively stable at around 46–47%, while the proportion of the oldest age group (80+ years) is projected to rise from 6% to 9%.
A comparison of the population pyramids of the eight Nordic countries reveals both shared developments and marked differences (Figure 3.1). In Iceland, all age groups are projected to grow, with the largest increase expected among those aged 30–55. In Greenland, by contrast, the expectation is that most age groups will shrink, except for the oldest cohorts (75+) and those aged 45–55. In the remaining Nordic countries, the patterns are more varied, with some age groups increasing and others declining. For example, the projections indicate that Denmark will see growth in the middle age groups (around 35-50 years), while Sweden and Norway will experience increases in the age range 45–60. Across all Nordic countries, the 80+ population is expected to rise during the next 20 years, while the number of young people under age 20 is projected to fall in all countries except Denmark, where it will remain stable, Iceland and the Faroe Islands.
Nordic Region: Population pyramids and age distribution (2025 and 2045)
Figure 3.1: Nordic Region: Population pyramid and age structure, 2025 and 2045. Source: Own illustrations based on population projection data from the National Statistical Institutes (NSIs). |
Box 3.1: Assumptions about future demographic trends and their impact on projection result
The Nordic population projections are based on assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration trends. These assumptions by the NSIs shape the projection results. A few aspects are particularly important to note:
First, several Nordic countries assume that fertility rates will increase in the future. For example, Statistics Denmark projects gradually rising fertility for ten different origin groups up to 2043, with the total fertility rate for women of Danish origin increasing from 1.5 in 2024 to 1.75 in 2043 (Statistics Denmark, 2025b). Statistics Norway expects an increase from 1.4 in 2024 to 1.66 in 2035 (Statistics Norway, 2024b), and Statistics Sweden projects a rise to around 1.65 in 2044 (Statistics Sweden, 2025b). While such developments are possible, they would represent a reversal of recent Nordic trends of declining fertility (see Chapter 2).
For regional and local planning, it is therefore advisable to consider not only projections based on assumptions of rising fertility, but also those that assume lower fertility, as these provide important insights into future needs for childcare and schooling. Sweden and Norway offer alternative scenarios based on varying fertility levels. Regularly updated data on actual births should also be consulted.
Second, migration assumptions play an important role for projection outcomes. However, they are among the most uncertain to forecast, as migration flows can change rapidly due to political developments, economic trends or crises. In Nordic projections, migration is typically expressed as assumed annual immigration and emigration flows or net migration levels. For example, Statistics Denmark (2025c) assumes between +10,000 and +13,000 net migrants per year, while Statistics Finland (2024b) assumes +40,000. Statistics Iceland (2025b) and Statistics Norway (2024c) both assume a steady decline in net migration until 2045 in their main scenarios. As with fertility, it is advisable to compare the results across different assumptions where possible.
Uncertainty increases further at the municipal level. This stems not only from the difficulty of predicting both international and internal migration, but also from the small population sizes of many municipalities, where even minor data inaccuracies have larger proportional effects (Smith and Rayer, 2015). Moreover, centrally produced projections cannot fully account for local conditions (Amcoff et al., 2025). For example, a projection may assume continued in-migration based on past trends, even if local housing or infrastructure constraints limit actual population growth. Conversely, new activities by a major employer may trigger sudden in-migration that demographic models cannot anticipate.
Taken together, these factors make municipal population projections particularly sensitive to error, and the longer the projection horizon, the less accurate the projection may become (Amcoff et al., 2025). For planning purposes, it is therefore important to examine alternative scenarios, consider margins of error where these are provided, and regularly consult updated projections that incorporate more recent demographic data.
Population change in Nordic regions and municipalities
While all of the Nordic countries except Greenland are projected to have larger populations in 2045 than today, this growth will be unevenly distributed across regions. As shown in Map 3.1, strong population growth is expected in many urban and coastal areas in southern Sweden, Finland and Norway, as well as in municipalities in the southern half of Iceland and around urban centres in Denmark. By contrast, declines of 10% or more are projected for many municipalities in northern Sweden, northern Iceland, Greenland and large parts of Finland.
Figure 3.2 confirms that population growth is concentrated in urban areas, whereas rural and remote areas are more likely to experience decline. The figure is based on Nordregio’s urban-rural typology, which classifies each Nordic municipality into one of seven settlement types (Stjernberg et al., 2024). The chart shows the shares of projected growth or decline for each of these seven categories.
The results show that around 60% of inner urban, outer urban, and peri-urban municipalities are projected to grow by at least 5% by 2045. Around 25% of outer urban and peri-urban municipalities, and 32% of inner urban municipalities, are expected to remain relatively stable, with population changes ranging from -5% to +5%. A smaller share of municipalities – approximately 6% of urban and 16% of outer urban and peri-urban – are projected to see population decline of 5% or more. Examples include Kiruna in Sweden (-11%), Frederikshavn in Denmark (-10%) and Imatra in Finland (-19%).
At the other end of the spectrum, rural heartlands and sparsely populated municipalities are most likely to face population decline: around half of the municipalities in these categories are projected to shrink by 5% or more. Nonetheless, there are exceptions, with 22% of sparsely populated municipalities and 15% of rural heartland municipalities expected to see population growth of 5% or more. These include municipalities in Iceland, such as Rangárþing Ytra and Eystra, and Sveitarfelagid Ölfus, which have also grown in recent years. This growth is most likely attributable to good transport connections, strong tourism and – in the case of Sveitarfelagid Olfus – proximity to the capital. Similar patterns are seen in rural municipalities in Norway (e.g. Hemsedal), Sweden (e.g. Åre) and Finland (e.g. Kustavi), which benefit from tourism, outdoor recreation and attractive living conditions, as well as positive net migration in the past.
Despite these exceptions, the overall trend is one of continued urbanisation. 70% of the Nordic population lived in inner urban and outer urban areas in 2025, compared with 9% in rural heartlands and sparsely populated areas. By 2045, this difference will become more pronounced according to the NSIs’ population projections, with 72% of the population expected to live in inner and outer urban areas, and less than 8% living in the two most rural municipality types.
Map 3.1: Projected change in total population size between 2025 and 2045, by municipality and region. Source: Nordregio calculations based on data from National Statistical Institutes (NSIs). National level data for the Faroe Islands. Nordic average: 6.3% |
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Figure 3.2: Share of municipalities by type and level of projected population change, 2025–2045. Source: National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) and the Nordic rural-urban typology (Stjernberg et al., 2024). Municipalities on the Faroe Islands and Greenland are not part of the Nordic rural-urban typology due to lack of data. They are therefore also not included in this Figure. |
Changing age composition in Nordic regions and municipalities
In most of the Nordic countries, the municipalities are responsible for providing daycare for children and care for older adults. The exception is Finland, where the responsibility for elder care was transferred to the so-called Wellbeing Services Counties (Finnish: hyvinvointialue) in 2023. Given this allocation of responsibilities, projections for the youngest and oldest age groups are important for local and regional planning.
Maps 3.2 and 3.3 show the projections for the number of young children aged 0 to 5 and older adults aged 80 and over. These age categories reflect typical childcare participation (0–5 years) and the age at which needs for home help, nursing or residential care tend to increase (80+), according to data from the Nordic Health & Welfare Statistics database (2024).
Map 3.2: Projected change in the number of children (0-5 years) between 2025 and 2045, by municipality and region. Source: Nordregio calculations based on data from National Statistical Institutes (NSIs). National level data for the Faroe Islands. Nordic average: 4.8% |
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Figure 3.3: Share of municipalities by type and level of projected change in number of children aged 0–5, 2025–2045. Source: Nordregio calculations based on data from National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) and the Nordic rural-urban typology (Stjernberg et al., 2024). Municipalities on the Faroe Islands and Greenland are not part of the Nordic rural-urban typology due to lack of data. They are therefore also not included in this figure. |
As Map 3.2 and Figure 3.3 show, it is expected that the number of young children in many inner urban, outer urban and peri-urban areas will continue to increase until 2045. Between 45% and 55% of the municipalities in these categories are projected to see an increase of more than 5%. These include municipalities in and around the capitals – Stockholm, Oslo, Reykjavik, Copenhagen and Helsinki – but also in other urban areas, such as Aarhus, Turku, Umeå and Kristiansand.
Outside of the urban areas, the number of small children is more likely to remain stable or decline. Around half of all rural heartland and sparsely populated municipalities are projected to see declines of 5% or more. Declines exceeding 20% are expected in roughly 20% of the sparsely populated municipalities. This includes municipalities in Finland, northern Iceland, Greenland and Åland.
Nonetheless, there are exceptions to this trend – 18% of sparsely populated municipalities are expected to see an increase of more than 20% in the number of small children. Examples include rural municipalities in southern Iceland, such as Myrdalshreppur and Asahreppur, which are projected to experience growth in both child cohorts and total population. In Norway, municipalities such as Utsira and Loppa are projected to have more small children in 2045, as do Pelkosenniemi in Finnish Lapland and the island municipality of Hailuoto. These examples illustrate that while growth in child populations is concentrated in urban centres, some rural municipalities will also have to plan for how to meet potentially increasing demands for childcare. Conversely, many other rural municipalities will also have to plan for the opposite development – how to reduce the number of childcare places without compromising the quality and availability of care for the families that need it.
It is important to note that projecting the size of child populations is complex (Amcoff et al., 2025). Projections for middle-aged and older cohorts in 2045 are more reliable because these individuals are alive already, whereas those who will be 0 and 19 years old in 2045 have not yet been born. The size of these younger age groups will depend not only on mortality and migration, but, crucially, on future fertility trends. When planning for childcare provision, policymakers should therefore closely monitor actual fertility trends and the number of pregnancies and births, and consult updated projections.
Map 3.3 and Figure 3.4 show expected changes in the number of people aged 80 and over – an age at which care needs tend to increase. Two points are notable. First, the number of older adults is expected to increase across the Nordic Region, which implies that every single municipality and region will need to plan for greater care demand. The only exception is Kökar on Åland, which is projected to see a minimal decline in the number of inhabitants aged 80+ in 2045 compared to today. Second, the largest increases are expected in outer urban and peri-urban areas, with around 60% of municipalities in these categories projected to see growth of 75% or more in their 80+ populations. Examples include Tuusula and Kirkonummi in Finland, Askøy and Tromsø in Norway, and Mosfellsbaer and Horgarsveit in Iceland. For these municipalities, adapting services and infrastructure to meet the needs of a rapidly expanding older population must be a central planning priority.
Map 3.3: Projected change in the number of older adults (80+ years) between 2025 and 2045, by municipality and region. Source: Nordregio calculations based on data from National Statistical Institutes (NSIs). National level data for the Faroe Islands. Nordic average: 65.2% |
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Figure 3.4: Share of municipalities by type and level of projected change in number of older adults aged 80+, 2025–2045. Source: Nordregio calculations based on data from National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) and the Nordic rural-urban typology (Stjernberg et al., 2024). Municipalities on the Faroe Islands and Greenland are not part of the Nordic rural-urban typology due to lack of data. They are therefore also not included in this figure. |
Conclusions
Demography may not be destiny, but effective regional and local development requires planning for expected population trends. As this chapter showed, recent projections from the Nordic statistical institutes indicate that in 2045 the Nordic population will be both larger and older than it is today.
However, these developments are not expected to unfold uniformly across the Nordic Region. Iceland is projected to see particularly strong growth, whereas Greenland will see a decline. All of the Nordic countries are projected to see increases in the number of people aged 80 and over, while only Denmark, Iceland and the Faroe Islands are expected to avoid declines in their youth cohorts.
Clear territorial differences also emerge within countries. Over the next 20 years, inner urban, outer urban and peri-urban municipalities are more likely to experience population growth than rural and sparsely populated areas. These municipalities are also more likely to see increases in the number of small children in need of daycare. In addition, outer urban and peri-urban municipalities are projected to experience particularly strong growth in the number of older adults. For these municipalities, the projections indicate that more investment will be required in both child and elder care.
Population projections, however, are not an exact science. Rather, they reflect expert judgement and the most recent demographic data. For policy and planning purposes, to consider uncertainty, it is therefore important to consult updated projections on a regular basis, as they will incorporate the most up-to-date demographic developments.
Taken together, these projections outline the demographic pressures and opportunities that are likely to shape Nordic regions in the decades ahead, and underscore the need for continuous monitoring and proactive planning.
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