Population change in the Nordic Region
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Population change in the Nordic Region
Introduction
Demographic change is reshaping the Nordic Region in significant and territorially varied ways. Although the Nordic countries share many structural similarities, recent developments reveal clear differences in fertility, age structure and population change. These trends influence labour markets, welfare systems and long-term planning.
Throughout the region, fertility has fallen to historically low levels, and rates of natural population change have declined substantially. In Finland, natural change has even turned negative, while in several other Nordic countries the numbers of births and deaths are now close to equal. Overall, the Nordic population continues to grow, driven mainly by increases in metropolitan and regional centres, and by international migration (examined further in Chapter 4). The autonomous territories (the Faroe Islands, Greenland and Åland) display their own characteristic demographic patterns, which are shaped by small population size, mobility dynamics and specific regional conditions.
This chapter provides an overview of the current demographic situation in the Nordic Region, focusing on population size, recent population change, fertility and age structure. Together, these components offer a common basis for understanding the ways in which current demographic developments are shaping the region. Chapter 3 projects future demographic developments, including at the regional level, while Chapter 4 provides a detailed analysis of migration, an important component of population change.
Population size and recent population change
At the beginning of 2025, the Nordic Region had a population of 28.3 million. While the Nordic countries collectively form a large and diverse region, they vary considerably in terms of population structure. Together, the western Nordic islands (the Faroe Islands, Iceland and Greenland) account for just over 2% of the total Nordic population. This means that demographic developments in these territories have only a limited impact on regional totals, even if the developments within them are important in their own right.
Figure 2.1 shows the population of the Nordic Region from 1990 to 2024, alongside the components of both natural increase (crude birth and death rates) and net migration (immigration and emigration). The crude birth rate (i.e., the number of births per 1,000 inhabitants) has declined steadily as fertility has fallen across all Nordic countries. The crude death rate has been more stable, although in many places an ageing population is contributing to a gradual increase in the number of deaths.
As births and deaths move closer together, natural population change has declined substantially. In recent years, births and deaths have been nearly equal at the Nordic level. Finland is now experiencing negative natural population change, with deaths exceeding births.
Figure 2.1: Population size and change by component in the Nordic Region, 1990-2024. Source: Nordic Statistics Database (2025a). Population changes are crude rates per thousand persons. |
Net migration has fluctuated more visibly. Inflows increased after EU enlargement in the mid-2000s, and again during 2015–2016, followed by a temporary decline during the COVID-19 pandemic. Positive net migration accounts for most of the population increase in recent years, although the scale differs between countries.
Regional differences in migration also reflect labour markets, educational opportunities and demographic composition. Metropolitan regions tend to attract younger adults and international migrants, while many rural and sparsely populated areas have experienced an outmigration of younger cohorts.
While Figure 2.1 summarises developments at the Nordic level, the spatial patterns of population change become clearer when examining municipalities and regions. Map 2.1 shows population change between 1990 and 2024. Blue indicates a population increase, orange a decrease. The map reveals marked territorial differences both within and between countries.
In Sweden, population change is highly uneven. The Stockholm region registered an increase of 51%, the second-highest rate of growth in the country, after Uppsala at 54%. At the same time, Västernorrland recorded a decline of -7.3%. Norway has similar internal contrasts, with the Oslo region growing by 56.6%, compared with Finnmark, which had an increase of 1.2%.
Finland shows the same pattern of divergence: Uusimaa–Nyland increased by 46.5%, whereas Kainuu–Kajanaland saw a decline of -24.6%. In Denmark, the differences are less pronounced, though still visible, with Hovedstaden increasing by 24% and Nordjylland increasing by 4%. In Iceland, population growth has been particularly strong in Höfuðborgarsvæðið (48%). The population of the Faroe Islands grew by 15%, Åland by 24%, and Greenland by 2.7%.
Map 2.1: Population change by region and municipality, 1990-2024. Source: National Statistical Institutes (NSIs). Reference year for Iceland: 1998 Nordic average: 4.1% |
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Population development in the Nordic Region in recent decades is therefore characterised by continued overall growth, but with substantial geographical variation. The metropolitan regions and regional centres continue to expand, while many rural and sparsely populated areas experience stagnation or decline. These spatial dynamics form a central backdrop for understanding the fertility patterns and age dynamics examined in the following sections.
Fertility in the Nordic Region
Fertility in the Nordic Region has declined to historically low levels. In all of the Nordic countries and autonomous territories, fertility rates are well below replacement level. Figure 2.2 shows the total fertility rate (TFR) from 1950 to 2024, illustrating both the long-term downward trend and the more recent decline since the mid-2000s.
In 2024, TFRs ranged from 1.25 in Finland to 1.91 in the Faroe Islands, making the Faroes the only Nordic territory close to replacement level fertility. Denmark, Norway and Sweden all fall within the mid-1.4 range, while Iceland and Greenland display somewhat higher rates than the larger Nordic countries.
Figure 2.2: Total fertility rate in the Nordic countries, 1950 to 2024. Source: Nordic Statistics database (2025b). The total fertility rate is the number of children a hypothetical cohort of women would give birth to if she passed through her childbearing years at the current age-specific rates. |
In a European context, low levels of fertility are not unusual. With the exceptions of Finland and Åland, the Nordic countries remain above the EU average, but this gap has narrowed as fertility declines across the region. The Nordic countries continue to cluster within a relatively narrow range and have converged downward in recent years.
Several studies attribute the decline primarily to the postponement of first births (Jónsson, 2023; Ohlsson-Wijk & Andersson, 2022). Nordic women now enter parenthood later than in previous decades, and the average age at first birth has risen markedly. This trend is visible across all Nordic countries, despite differences in institutional settings, which overall remain among the most generous in the world (Neyer et al., 2024). The sharp rise in average age at first birth over the past few decades reduces the potential for later “recuperation”, as fertility at older ages cannot fully offset earlier delays.
Childlessness and gender patterns
The decline in fertility is also reflected in rising levels of childlessness (see figures 2.3 and 2.4). For women born in 1978 who have now completed their childbearing years, the proportion that has never had a child ranges from 11% in Denmark to 20% in Finland (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and Vienna Institute of Demography, 2024). Cohort fertility is expected to stabilise or decline further in Denmark and Sweden, and to decline more sharply in Iceland, Norway and Finland (Hellstrand et al., 2021). Among men, the increase in childlessness is even more pronounced (Figure 2.4). In 1990, between 15 and 19% of men aged 45 had not had a biological child; by 2024, this share had risen to 20–30% across the Nordic countries. Research highlights that many men want to have children but delay parenthood until key life steps (education, stable employment, secure housing and partnership) are “in place”. Social expectations and peer pressure also influence family formation (Rotkirch et al., 2011; Malling et al., 2020).
Figure 2.3: Childlessness at age 45 women, 1990-2025. Source: Nordic Statistics database (2025c). |
Figure 2.4: Childlessness at age 45 men, 1990-2025. Source: Nordic Statistics database (2025c). |
Recent birth trends
The number of births in the Nordic Region has declined steadily during the past decade. In 2024, there were 258,000 births (Nordic Statistics database, 2025a), a 17% decline from 2010, which represented a recent peak in fertility levels. These developments underscore a broader demographic shift – a combination of smaller cohorts entering childbearing ages and lower fertility levels is resulting in fewer births, and reducing natural population change.
Variation across countries, regions and municipalities
Despite the shared trend towards lower fertility, levels vary within the Nordic Region (see Map 2.2). Finland, Åland and Sweden have the lowest female TFRs (1.25–1.43), followed by Denmark and Norway (around 1.44–1.46). TFRs are higher in Iceland, Greenland and the Faroe Islands (1.56–1.90), with the Faroe Islands standing out as the only Nordic territory near long-term replacement thresholds. In Greenland, fertility remains above that of the larger Nordic countries, but is still below replacement level. Overall, the Nordic countries combined cluster around the mid-1.4 range.
Map 2.2: Total fertility rate (women) by region 2024. Source: National Statistical Institutes (NSIs). Total fertility rate (TFR): number of children per woman National level scale for the Faroe Islands. Greenland: total fertility rates (2-year period, 2023-2024) Finland: total fertility rates (4-year period, 2022-2023) Nordic average: 1.15 |
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At the regional level, TFRs are relatively homogeneous across much of the Nordic Region, and generally fall within the 1.3–1.6 range. A few regions, including Norðurland eystra (Iceland), Varsinais-Suomi (Finland), Rogaland (Norway) and Halland (Sweden), show higher levels of fertility, in the 1.6–2.1 range.
At the local level, most municipalities in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Åland and Iceland fall within the 1.3–1.6 range, while Denmark has a larger share in the 1.6–2.1 category. Greenland and the Faroe Islands also predominantly fall within the 1.6–2.1 range.
Taken together, these patterns confirm persistently low fertility across the Nordic Region, with clear variation between countries, regions and municipalities.
The demographic implications of fertility decline
The sustained fall in fertility is already clearly visible in the age structure: the largest cohorts today are those born in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when fertility was considerably higher, while more recent cohorts are substantially smaller (around 55–65% of these peak cohorts). This shift directly contributes to today’s lower birth rates, and will continue to shape the age distribution in the decades to come.
These cohort shifts are also reflected in age-dependency ratios. Fewer children relative to the working-age population means there is a reduction in the young dependency ratio. In contrast, the ageing population has increased the old-age ratio (most notably in Finland, where the young dependency ratio has declined from 41 in 1990 to 36 today, and the old-age ratio has risen from 22 to 42). Similar, though differently paced developments are evident across the Nordic Region.
The demographic implications of low fertility levels have been a matter of increasing concern for policy-makers, with several Nordic governments recently initiating inquiries into declining birth rates (Government of Sweden, Socialdepartementet, 2025; Government of Norway, 2025; Finnish Government, 2025). However, research consistently finds that policy interventions tend to have limited or temporary effects, and that current fertility trends are closely linked to broader societal uncertainty (Jónsson, 2023; Ohlsson-Wijk & Andersson, 2022; Neyer et al., 2022).
Age structure in the Nordic Region
The age structure of the Nordic population has shifted markedly in recent decades, driven by declining fertility and the ageing of large birth cohorts. Although the countries differ in size, they feature broadly similar age profiles, characterised by a shrinking share of children and younger adults and a growing proportion of older people. These long-term demographic shifts constitute the backdrop for understanding current and future population dynamics.
Figure 2.5 shows that the Nordic age structure is dominated by large cohorts born around 1990, while more recent cohorts are considerably smaller due to long-term fertility decline. The population share of older people continues to grow as earlier cohorts age and life expectancy increases.
Age structure of the Nordic countries and regions
Figure 2.5: Age structure of the Nordic countries and regions.
Source: National Statistical Institutes (NSIs).
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Source: National Statistical Institutes (NSIs).
Data are for 2025 for all countries listed except Sweden and Åland, for which the data are for 2024.
Due to their small populations, the autonomous territories exhibit more irregular age structures. In Greenland, this results in visibly uneven age pyramid, with more recent cohorts being roughly two-thirds the size of the largest ones. In addition, there are marked fluctuations between adjacent age groups. The age structure is also shaped by a sharp decline in births after the mid-1960s, partly linked to a state-run birth-control programme involving forced IUD insertions – a policy for which the Danish government has issued a formal apology (Government of Greenland, 2024).
The Faroe Islands show distinctive patterns that are presumably shaped by education-related migration. Cohorts in their late teens and early twenties are noticeably smaller due to outmigration for educational reasons. Many individuals appear to return later in life, as reflected in distinctive “gaps” in the age pyramid.
Åland has a smoother age distribution than Greenland and the Faroe Islands, which reflects its slightly older and more stable population. Nevertheless, the main Nordic trends – smaller younger cohorts and increasing numbers of older adults – are evident here, too.
Map 2.3 provides a territorial overview of the share of the population aged 80 years and over. The map shows clear geographical differences: rural and sparsely populated areas tend to have higher proportions of older residents. In contrast, metropolitan regions and larger urban centres generally have younger age profiles. These spatial patterns reflect long-standing migration flows and underline the demographic challenges facing regions with ageing populations. These patterns of age distribution also constitute an essential baseline for the demographic projections presented in Chapter 3.
Map 2.3: Share of the population 80 years and older, 2025. Source: Nordregio calculations based on data from National Statistical Institutes (NSIs). National level data for the Faroe Islands Nordic average: 6.9% |
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The decline in fertility is already reshaping the age structure. As smaller cohorts reach working and childbearing age, they replace larger cohorts born in the 1980s and early 1990s. This reduces the potential number of future births and contributes to rising average ages across the region. While Chapter 3 examines the projected implications for population development, the current age structure provides essential context for understanding the demographic trajectory of the Nordic Region.
Conclusions
The demographic situation in the Nordic Region is characterised by continued overall population growth, alongside widening territorial differences. In recent decades, metropolitan regions and regional centres have expanded, while many rural and sparsely populated areas have experienced stagnation or decline. These spatial patterns provide the backdrop for understanding demographic change across the Nordic countries and autonomous territories.
Fertility has fallen to historically low levels in all of the Nordic countries and territories, leading to fewer births, despite comparatively large cohorts of women of childbearing age. Rising ages at first birth and increasing levels of childlessness among both women and men further contribute to the narrowing base of younger cohorts.
The age structure of the Nordic population also reflects these developments. The age distribution is now dominated by large cohorts born in the late 1980s and early 1990s, whereas more recent cohorts are considerably smaller. As these smaller cohorts reach working and childbearing age, they will shape demographic development in the coming decades. While Chapter 3 examines in detail future population trajectories, the patterns presented here provide essential context for interpreting these projections.
Together, the overview of population size, territorial population change, fertility and age structure presented in this chapter establishes a common foundation for subsequent demographic analyses. These patterns are central for understanding both the demographic projections in Chapter 3 and the migration and diversity dynamics analysed in Chapter 4.
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