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3.4 The impact of geographic background on migration preference

3.4.1 Geographic background and past migration choices

These answers are, to some extent, affected by the geographic bias towards urban areas discussed under the section 2.1, showing up as a clear minority of rural residents here. Despite this fact, it is possible to deduct certain representative findings from this data when examining the relative shares instead of total numbers. 
The tables below demonstrate how the geographic background (how urban or rural the respondents’ place of origin was) correlates with their migration history. “Semiurban” refers to the more less condensed settlements surrounding urban centers (suburbs), smaller centers in rural areas, or more rural areas that are however well connected to a nearby urban center. This definition is based on Nordregio’s Nordic urban-rural typology (Stjernberg et al. 2024).
Graph 49. Migration choices that people from urban places of origin have made.
Graph 50. Migration choices that people from semiurban places of origin have made.
Graph 51. Migration choices that people from rural places of origin have made.
These graphs tell us that people from urban places of origin are less inclined to leave them behind, while rural places tend to correlate with people leaving them either indefinitely or for some time. This phenomenon is especially pronounced in Finland and, in contrast, reversed in Sweden, where people are more likely to leave an urban place of origin and least likely to pack their bags in a rural area. Norwegian and Swedish respondents are even more likely to leave from a semiurban area than a rural one, although this difference is less pronounced. In Denmark, people are roughly as likely to leave, stay or return despite the geographic characteristics of their place of origin. 
As can be deduced from the choices of leavers, people with an urban background are generally most likely to stay in their place of origin, again, especially in Finland but also in Norway and Iceland. Sweden sets itself apart from the rest by having more rural than urban stayers. 
When it comes to returning to one’s place of origin, geography appears to have a lesser impact. Norwegians are most likely to return to their rural place of origin later, while Finns and Danes are the most reluctant. As for urban and semi-urban areas, Icelandic respondents are considerably more eager to travel back there than to a rural area.


3.4.2 Geographic background and future migration choices

The tables below categorise the respondents further, based on, first, whether their place of origin can be classified as urban, semiurban, or rural, and secondly, their migration history, and finally how these factors correlate with their future migration preferences.
SWEDEN
Place of origin
Urban
Semiurban
Rural
Leavers
334
94
30
Happy to stay
24%
24%
29%
Want to move back
4%
7%
2%
Someplace else
9%
9%
5%
Unsure
17%
21%
11%
Stayers
167
37
22
Happy to stay
14%
17%
23%
Want to move back
6%
0%
5%
Someplace else
3%
4%
3%
Unsure
4%
3%
3%
Returners
114
21
13
Happy to stay
8%
6%
14%
Want to move back
5%
4%
5%
Someplace else
2%
0%
0%
Unsure
3%
3%
2%
Total respondents
615
152
65
FINLAND
Place of origin
Urban
  Semiurban
Rural
Leavers
332
151
175
Unsure
14%
18%
22%
Wish to remain here
23%
33%
39%
Wish to return
9%
5%
9%
Someplace else
7%
11%
8%
Stayers
185
31
25
Unsure
4%
1%
0%
Wish to remain here
19%
8%
6%
Wish to return
4%
4%
4%
Someplace else
2%
0%
0%
Returners
125
42
25
Unsure
4%
3%
1%
Wish to remain here
11%
17%
6%
Wish to return
3%
2%
3%
Someplace else
2%
2%
0%
Total respondents
642
224
225
Graph 52. Geographic background and migration preferences of respondents from Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, and Iceland.
NORWAY
Place of origin
Urban
 Semiurban
Rural
Leavers
275
138
105
Wish to move somewhere
5%
5%
7%
Wish to remain here
25%
35%
33%
Wish to return
4%
9%
6%
Unsure
16%
17%
20%
Stayers
144
24
18
Wish to move somewhere
2%
0%
0%
Wish to remain here
15%
9%
8%
Wish to return
5%
2%
0%
Unsure
4%
0%
3%
Returners
131
43
36
Wish to move somewhere
1%
1%
0%
Wish to remain here
13%
12%
12%
Wish to return
7%
5%
8%
Unsure
3%
3%
3%
Grand Total
550
205
159
DENMARK
Place of origin
Urban
 Semiurban
Rural
Leavers
327
203
49
Wish to move somewhere
5%
7%
1%
Wish to remain here
29%
30%
39%
Wish to return
5%
5%
11%
Unsure
18%
18%
13%
Stayers
117
69
17
Wish to move somewhere
1%
1%
1%
Wish to remain here
11%
12%
14%
Wish to return
4%
4%
3%
Unsure
4%
4%
4%
Returners
134
69
10
Wish to move somewhere
1%
1%
0%
Wish to remain here
12%
11%
8%
Wish to return
8%
5%
1%
Unsure
2%
3%
4%
Grand Total
578
341
76
ICELAND
Place of origin
Urban
  emiurban
Rural
Leavers
144
28
73
I wish to move somewhere
7%
7%
6%
Unsure
13%
11%
19%
I wish to remain here
28%
39%
38%
I wish to return
4%
4%
6%
Stayers
56
5
14
I wish to move somewhere
0%
2%
1%
Unsure
3%
2%
1%
I wish to remain here
13%
4%
9%
I wish to return
4%
2%
2%
Returners
77
13
20
I wish to move somewhere
3%
9%
2%
Unsure
6%
7%
3%
I wish to remain here
17%
13%
12%
I wish to return
3%
0%
2%
Grand Total
277
46
107
In all countries, people who have left a rural place of origin and settled into a new area are most content to remain living there. In contrast, people from semiurban or urban places appear to live more mobile lives in the sense that since leaving their place of origin, a relatively large share of them are unsure about where to settle. This trend is especially visible in Denmark and Sweden. Finland and Iceland have the most clear majority of rural respondents leaving their place of origin, and this group also shows more variety when it comes to future choices. 
The place of origin also correlates to some extent with the stayers’ future migration preferences. These results further cement the finding that Finnish respondents are clearly more likely to remain in their place of origin if they come from an urban area. This also applies, to lesser extent, to Norway, while in Sweden, it is the rural stayers who are most content to remain. In Denmark and Iceland, the answers are more mixed regarding this point. 
As for those planning or having already returned, they are not necessarily more certain of their choice to remain living there compared to those who have stayed. In Finland, people returning to semiurban places and in Sweden, people returning to rural places emerge as particularly content to remain living there.